The hottest Jiaozhou City will have a bottoming ou

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The rubber market will have a bottom in the first ten days of September, and the second ten days of September may usher in a restorative rise

affected by the downward trend of crude oil and gold breaking, and the gradual recovery of natural rubber supply, the internal and external rubber prices showed a downward trend in August and completed the first bottom. The author believes that with the promotion of internal and external factors, the rubber market will have a bottoming process in the first ten days of September, and will usher in a restorative rise in the second ten days of September, and continue its tortuous bull market path

the inventory of Shanghai Jiao continues to increase

at the moment when the 809 contract, which has been tossed for nearly two months, is about to usher in its "premature death", whether it is speculative short positions, or long positions of agricultural reclamation and Zhejiang funds will be gradually reduced due to the rules of the exchange in early September (next week). Although the inventory of Shanghai Jiao stock has shown an upward trend for six consecutive weeks, as of yesterday's close, there are still 28818 positions and 14409 unilateral positions, that is, short sellers need to hand over 72045 tons of spot goods, excluding 45460 tons from the exchange, and 26585 tons of inventory need to be replenished at the time of delivery, which is obviously impossible. Therefore, this week will be the time for speculative long and short parties to significantly reduce their positions, and the futures price will fluctuate significantly, Peripheral contracts will also be affected

the author believes that whether the Bulls receive all the goods or not, the price will fall sharply. First of all, if all goods are received, between the high price of receiving goods and the sharp rise in foreign spot goods, whether it is the backlog in invisible inventory after receiving goods or the return to futures and become explicit inventory, it will put pressure on the forward November contract and lead to the decline of future prices; Secondly, if only speculative short positions are forced to cut positions, then long positions will also hedge away, making its price battery free diaphragm enterprises need to further improve the performance of existing diaphragm experimental products in the future. 2. Aluminum profile vertical shear fixture, 809 contract will fall rapidly and return to a market rational price for stable delivery. This is also a potential factor for the second bottom of the rubber market in the late stage

the export of Thai Natural Rubber increased

in 2008, the export of Thai natural rubber (including latex) was 1655784 tons; In the same period of 2007, it was 1624847 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 30937 tons, an increase of 1.9%; The month on month increase in July was 43469 tons, an increase of 20%. Affected by the gradual improvement of the weather, at present, Thailand's overall opening and cutting is normal, all links of the spot production line are undergoing the final commissioning and optimization before the formal production, and the supply is sufficient. Even though the spot price has fallen sharply in the early stage, it is still in the high price region as a whole, and the short-term spot price is in a volatile trend, and will continue to decline; As the largest country in Thailand's supply and export, the increase of China's export volume will also affect the decline of Shanghai rubber price

synthetic rubber fell sharply

affected by the fall in oil prices, the outer market price of raw butadiene fell. The fall in raw material prices led to a sharp decline in the quotation of domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber manufacturers. The fall in manufacturer prices led to the rapid emergence of market selling, the quotation fell one after another, the price fell back, and the market transaction was still not improved. Last week, a new round of quotation reduction, the market quotation fell sharply, and the market transaction was still not smooth, By the end of last weekend, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was about yuan, down nearly 3000 yuan from the previous high of 26400 yuan/ton. However, consumer enterprises are bearish in the future and are still waiting for lower prices. It is expected that there is still room for decline in synthetic rubber in the future. Worth and maintain an average annual growth rate of 20%; By 2035, it is mentioned that after the price of synthetic rubber fell, the price difference with the spot price of natural rubber widened to more than 3000 yuan, and the supporting effect on natural rubber is no longer obvious. Therefore, it is expected that the spot price of natural rubber will follow the downward trend in September

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